The United States has failed to prevent China from shipbuilding, and policies may be further relaxed

Since the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) first proposed restrictions on Chinese shipbuilding, nearly half of the world's new shipbuilding orders still go to Chinese shipyards. HSBC believes that the United States may further relax restrictions on Chinese made industries.

The global shipbuilding industry report released by HSBC Global Research shows that the share of new shipbuilding orders from Chinese shipyards in the global market has slightly declined compared to 2024, but still maintains an important position. Since USTR first released a proposal on February 21 aimed at addressing China's "unreasonable behavior, policies, and practices" in the shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, there have still been a large number of new ship orders pouring into China.

According to Clarkson data cited by HSBC, from February 21 to June 8, Chinese shipyards secured 151 out of 343 new shipbuilding orders issued by shipowners. During this period, Chinese shipyards won 48% of new ship orders based on the corrected gross tonnage (CGT) calculation.

According to data from the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, after USTR announced the restriction proposal, Chinese shipyards took on nearly 50% of orders based on the revised total tonnage calculation.

The container ship sector, which has been most impacted by USTR port fees, still held a 72% market share in China based on revised gross tonnage from February 21 to June 8.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative initially proposed on February 21 to impose a unified port fee on Chinese ships every time they dock at US ports. After soliciting public opinions, the policy was officially announced on April 17th and adjusted to be charged based on net tonnage, mainly targeting Chinese shipowners and ship operators.

From the announcement of the policy on April 17th to June 8th, the share of new ship orders calculated based on the revised total tonnage by Chinese shipyards has increased to 54%. This means that as policy uncertainty weakens, shipowners gradually return to Chinese shipyards.

HSBC stated that overall, the impact of the US Trade Representative's measures reflected in the overall order data of Chinese shipyards is not as pessimistic as the situation disclosed by Yangtze River Shipbuilding, the largest private shipbuilding company in China, last month. Yangtze River Shipbuilding Industry disclosed in late May that it has received new ship orders worth $290 million so far this year, which is less than 5% of its annual target of $6 billion.

HSBC believes that with the trade negotiations between China and the United States on tariffs in London this week, USTR may further reduce port fees for Chinese built ships.

The HSBC report states: "On June 6th, the Office of the United States Trade Representative further revised the port fee terms and conditions for non US built automobile and liquefied natural gas carriers, and solicited public opinions until July 7th. We believe that the US China trade negotiations are likely to include further relaxation of restrictions on Chinese built ships